The Impact of Agricultural Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Agricultural Imports: Evidence from China

This study uses provincial panel data from China (2014–2022) to examine the effect of agricultural outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on agricultural imports. Employing panel regression, mediation effect, and spatial Durbin models, it explores the underlying mechanisms, spatial spillover effects, and regional heterogeneity, while emphasizing the role of OFDI in building sustainable agricultural supply chains. The results show that: (1) OFDI significantly promotes agricultural imports, enhancing the stability and diversity of the domestic supply, supporting food security, and facilitating the sustainable allocation of resources. (2) Mechanism analysis reveals that OFDI affects imports through reverse technology spillovers and improved international relations. (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that OFDI exerts stronger influence in major grain-marketing areas, production–marketing balance regions, and provinces along the Belt and Road, compared with grain-producing areas and non-Belt and Road provinces. (4) Spatial analysis based on the 0–1 adjacency matrix reveals that agricultural imports across Chinese provinces exhibit significant positive spatial autocorrelation. Furthermore, OFDI not only directly promotes agricultural imports within a given province but also generates notable positive spatial spillover effects, whereby OFDI in neighboring provinces likewise exert a positive influence on the province’s agricultural imports. To enhance the import effect of agricultural OFDI and stabilize the domestic supply of agricultural products, policy implications suggest that the government should adhere to the agricultural “going global” strategy, enhance enterprises’ capacity to absorb reverse technology spillovers, and explore regionally differentiated pathways for agricultural OFDI, among other policy recommendations.