Climate-driven invasion risk and ecological niche overlap between non-native round goby and native European fishes

Biological invasions and climate change are two of the most prominent drivers of freshwater biodiversity loss. In this study, we assessed the climate-driven invasion risk and ecological niche overlap between the non-native round goby Neogobius melanostomus and several native European freshwater fishes ( Barbatula barbatula , Cottus gobio , Cottus perifretum , Cobitis taenia , Gobio gobio , Gymnocephalus cernua , and Perca fluviatilis ) to forecast shifts in their potential distributions using ecological niche modeling combined with future climate projections. Our models projected a substantial northward and westward expansion of N. melanostomus under future climate scenarios, with suitable habitats increasing especially under high-emission pathways. Native species also exhibited shifts in their distributions, often resulting in increased geographic overlap with N. melanostomus . Habitat overlap was most pronounced between N. melanostomus and C. taenia , with future projections identifying over 10% of the landscape as high-suitability. Overlap hotspots were concentrated in northern Europe, particularly along the coasts of the Netherlands, Germany and the UK, highlighting the potential for escalating biotic interactions such as competition, habitat displacement, and trophic disruption, particularly in vulnerable benthic communities. Alongside negative interactions, our results highlight potential climate refugia with limited projected overlap, pointing to priority areas for conservation. Our findings thus emphasize the urgent need for regionally targeted monitoring and conservation strategies that account for both climate-driven range dynamics and ecological interactions between invasive and native species. Integrating spatial forecasting with ecological risk assessment offers critical insights that can support efforts to mitigate the impacts of biological invasions in a warming world.