China’s Chrome Demand Forecast from 2025 to 2040: Based on Sectoral Predictions and PSO-BP Neural Network

Chromium is a critical material for stainless steel production. With economic growth and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, China’s demand for chromium has been increasing year by year. Conducting research on chromium demand forecasting holds significant practical implications for the sustainable development of China’s chromium industrial chain. China’s chromium consumption accounts for one-third of the global, over 95% of which has long-term depended on imports, and 90% of which is used in stainless steel production. In this paper, a linear correlation model between chromium consumption and stainless steel production is constructed by using the department demand forecasting method. The importance of influencing factors on chromium demand is analyzed using the gray correlation degree, and a PSO-BP neural network algorithm is constructed to predict China’s chromium demand from 2025 to 2040. The results indicate that the predictions of the two methods are relatively consistent, with demand for chromium expected to peak in 2035 and then decline gradually thereafter. This provides an important reference basis for the security and sustainable development of China’s chromium supply chain.