Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections

In the context of rapid human-caused climate change, regular updates of the state of knowledge of current and future climate are needed. New statistical methods using observational constraints underpinned estimates of present-day human-induced warming and projected future warming in the most recent IPCC report. As time goes by, and new updated observational records become available, how should estimates of the current and projected human-caused climate change be updated? Here, we use a perfect model framework and show that incorporating observations from every new year in observationally constrained projections improves their accuracy, without causing major year-to-year spurious variability on outcomes. The forced warming estimated for the current year also exhibits high enough stability to be considered as a robust indicator of the state of the climate system.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2025-10-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63026-9
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.11

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article

Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections

Joeri Rogelj, Octave Tessiot, Piers M. de F. Forster, R. Vautard et al.
1 citations
Nature Communications
Climate variability and models
1.11
article

Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections

Joeri Rogelj, Octave Tessiot, Piers M. de F. Forster, R. Vautard, Valérie Masson‐Delmotte, Aurélien Ribes, Nathan P. Gillett, Tristram Walsh
article en
1 citations

Abstract

In the context of rapid human-caused climate change, regular updates of the state of knowledge of current and future climate are needed. New statistical methods using observational constraints underpinned estimates of present-day human-induced warming and projected future warming in the most recent IPCC report. As time goes by, and new updated observational records become available, how should estimates of the current and projected human-caused climate change be updated? Here, we use a perfect model framework and show that incorporating observations from every new year in observationally constrained projections improves their accuracy, without causing major year-to-year spurious variability on outcomes. The forced warming estimated for the current year also exhibits high enough stability to be considered as a robust indicator of the state of the climate system.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 16(1)
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Leeds (GB), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT), Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), Sorbonne Université (FR), University of Oxford (GB), Institute For European Environmental Policy (GB), Météo-France (FR), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR), CEA Paris-Saclay (FR), Imperial College London (GB)
Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Openalex Percentile: Top 19%
Climate variability and models
1.11
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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