Sustainability and environmental impact of residential photovoltaic systems with lithium-ion battery storage in Colombia: a system dynamics approach

Purpose The purpose of this study is to evaluate the sustainability and environmental impact of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems with lithium-ion battery storage in Colombia, projecting their adoption and viability through 2050 using a system dynamics approach. The study examines these technologies as a sustainable and economically viable response to global warming and the increasing demand and cost of energy, offering a potential solution to alleviate the burden on the National Interconnected System. Design/methodology/approach A system dynamics model was developed to project the environmental and economic impact of residential PV systems coupled with lithium-ion battery storage under four distinct future scenarios. The model includes variables such as energy demand, solar irradiance, battery capacity and grid dependency while also considering policy frameworks, economic incentives and material cost volatility. Data were sourced from governmental reports, academic literature and solar energy providers in Colombia. Findings The findings suggest that while lithium-ion battery storage can significantly reduce grid dependency and carbon emissions, the overall environmental impact may increase due to battery lifecycle emissions. Under favorable economic and policy conditions, the large-scale adoption of PV-battery systems is feasible, driven by declining costs and effective incentives. However, the study highlights the volatility in the cost of critical materials and the need for diversified incentives to accelerate adoption. Originality/value This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the environmental and economic implications of residential PV systems with battery storage in Colombia, a topic underexplored in the current literature. By employing a system dynamics approach and projecting scenarios through 2050, the research offers valuable insights for policymakers, energy providers and residential consumers, emphasizing the role of effective policies and infrastructure development in maximizing the benefits of these technologies in the Colombian context.