Preventive versus curative breakthroughs: shaping the distribution of age at death

Abstract How have preventive and curative medical breakthroughs shaped life expectancy and the dispersion of age at death in the United States over the past century? We address this question by developing a life-cycle model in which both health and lifespan are endogenous. The model distinguishes between preventive innovations, which reduce the incidence of disease, and curative advances, which lower mortality risks associated with existing health conditions. Our quantitative analysis shows that while both types of medical innovation have contributed to increased life expectancy since 1935, curative advances have been the primary driver of the decline in the dispersion of age at death. Medical innovations have also improved welfare – measured in terms of a consumption-equivalent metric – by an average of 0.11% per year, with curative advances representing the most significant contribution. These findings are robust across different scenarios and parametrization strategies.