Small states and the threat of victimisation: Finland and the Ukraine conflicts 2014 and 2022

When observing interstate aggression, vulnerable small states’ threat perceptions differ from those of great powers and other relatively secure states. Vulnerable small states experience a threat of victimisation, asking themselves whether they might suffer the fate of the victim. Contrary to previous International Relations (IR) conceptualisations of threat, the victimisation logic puts the aggression rather than the aggressor at the centre. Understood this way, small states’ threat perceptions are not only influenced by threatening aggressive states, but also by other aspects of the aggression – notably, the victim. Investigating this proposition, this article examines Finnish perceptions of Russia and Ukraine in the context of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and war in the Donbas in 2014 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While Russia’s expanding aggression heightened Finnish threat perceptions, comparisons with Ukraine also influenced how applicable the threat appeared to Finland. The dual analysis highlights the intertwining roles of aggressors and victims as components of aggression that together intensify the threat perceptions of vulnerable small states. The qualitative content analysis draws on contemporary public sources and original ex-post policymaker interview data. Empirically, it provides further insights into the Finnish security policy shift of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.