Markets for Children: International Adoption, ART, and U.S. Foster Care

Abstract This paper examines how access to alternative paths to parenthood-international adoption and assisted reproductive technologies (ART)-affects adoption outcomes in the U.S. foster care system. Using a child-level panel from 1998 to 2010, we exploit major shifts in both channels during this period. To address endogeneity, we implement two instrumental variable strategies: a shift-share design leveraging exogenous supply shocks from key international sending countries, and an interactive instrument based on the timing of state-level fertility insurance mandates. Our results show that increased access to international adoption and ART significantly reduces the likelihood that children, especially younger ones, are adopted from foster care. These findings highlight how developments in global adoption policy and reproductive technology can shape domestic adoption outcomes.