Prediction of Thermal Response of Burning Outdoor Vegetation Using UAS-Based Remote Sensing and Artificial Intelligence

The increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires pose severe risks to ecosystems, infrastructure, and human safety. In wildland–urban interface (WUI) areas, nearby vegetation strongly influences building ignition risk through flame contact and radiant heat exposure. However, limited research has leveraged Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) remote sensing (RS) to capture species-specific vegetation geometry and predict thermal responses during ignition events This study proposes a two-stage framework integrating UAS-based multispectral (MS) imagery, LiDAR data, and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) modeling to estimate the maximum temperature (T) and heat flux (HF) of outdoor vegetation, focusing on Syzygium smithii (Lilly Pilly). The study data was collected at a plant nursery at Queensland, Australia. A total of 72 commercially available outdoor vegetation samples were classified into 11 classes based on pixel counts. In the first stage, ensemble learning and watershed segmentation were employed to segment target vegetation patches. Vegetation UAS-LiDAR point cloud delineation was performed using Raycloudtools, then projected onto a 2D raster to generate instance ID maps. The delineated point clouds associated with the target vegetation were filtered using georeferenced vegetation patches. In the second stage, cone-shaped synthetic models of Lilly Pilly were simulated in FDS, and the resulting data from the sensor grid placed near the vegetation in the simulation environment were used to train an XGBoost model to predict T and HF based on vegetation height (H) and crown diameter (D). The point cloud delineation successfully extracted all Lilly Pilly vegetation within the test region. The thermal response prediction model demonstrated high accuracy, achieving an RMSE of 0.0547 °C and R2 of 0.9971 for T, and an RMSE of 0.1372 kW/m2 with an R2 of 0.9933 for HF. This study demonstrates the framework’s feasibility using a single vegetation species under controlled ignition simulation conditions and establishes a scalable foundation for extending its applicability to diverse vegetation types and environmental conditions.