The Impact of Multidimensional Regional Integration on Low-Carbon Development: Empirical Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta

Amid the deep integration of China’s “dual-carbon” goals with regional coordinated development strategies, this study develops a multidimensional analytical framework of regional integration based on panel data from 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2009 to 2023. The framework encompasses five dimensions: urban–rural integration, innovation coordination, infrastructure connectivity, ecological co-governance, and public service sharing. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), the study empirically investigates the mechanisms and pathways through which regional integration shapes low-carbon development. The results indicate that different dimensions exert differentiated impacts: urban–rural integration and infrastructure connectivity significantly promote low-carbon development, whereas public service sharing has an adverse effect due to a phenomenon known as “carbon lock-in”. By contrast, the impact of innovation coordination and ecological co-governance is not statistically significant. Moreover, substantial regional heterogeneity exists: Jiangsu Province demonstrates the leading performance in the manifest development level; Zhejiang Province shows strong systemic capacity level, but limited conversion into manifest outcomes. At the same time, most cities in Anhui Province lag in both aspects. Coordination analysis further identifies four typical development patterns: dual-high, system-driven, performance-dominant, and dual-low. Drawing on these findings, this study proposes policy recommendations across four dimensions—regional coordination, low-carbon pathway optimization, targeted empowerment, and collaborative governance—to facilitate the green and low-carbon transition of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.