Experimental impact study on a micro-grid project in rural Madagascar: The Café Lumière project

This paper evaluates the impact of a pilot innovative project aiming at promoting a replicable model to create access to distributed electricity in rural areas where grid extension is economically infeasible. The project proposes building solar-powered micro-grids to provide affordable electricity and basic electricity services to households, businesses, and public services. The pilot nature of the project was conceived to facilitate a rigorous testing of its developmental impacts, contrasting with the existing evaluation literature, which provides at best descriptive conclusions. The evaluation methodology is based on a randomized control trial (RCT) design, with data collected before and after project implementation through two waves of household surveys in 2017–2018 and 2023, complemented by locality data. The experimental dimension of the paper is based on a treatment implemented at the locality level. A dozen of comparable localities had been initially selected after a common pre-feasibility study as suitable for the project, and the project has been randomly implemented in only half of them. Findings reveal notable improvements in household access to electricity, particularly in the use of modern energy services like lighting and phone charging. The project has also triggered nascent new economic activities, especially secondary income-generating occupations, though the overall impact on household wealth remains limited. Social outcomes have seen mixed results, with only significant improvements in health and none in education. Complementary actions mentioned in the project's theory of change but not fully implemented may be needed to achieve the broader economic and social transformation initially anticipated.