Investigating direct economic and market shocks of conflict on agriculture production in Nigeria

This study empirically investigates the direct economic and market shocks that mediate the relationship between conflict and agricultural outcomes in Nigeria. While much of the existing literature has focused either on the effect of conflict on agricultural production or farm input access, this study uniquely contributes to the discourse by analysing the mechanisms, particularly economic and market shocks, through which conflict influences agriculture in two conflict-affected regions of Nigeria. We employ a linear probability model with household fixed effects to analyse balanced panel data from the Nigerian General Household Survey (GHS), which we merged with georeferenced conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). This approach enables us to control unobserved household-specific characteristics and examine regional variation in conflict-related shocks. Our findings reveal substantial regional heterogeneity in the mechanisms through which conflict affects agricultural outcomes. In the Northeast, conflict is positively associated with both increased farm theft and rising output prices, likely driven by supply disruptions and heightened insecurity. In contrast, in the Southeast, increased conflict is linked to a smaller rise in farm theft and a decline in output prices, suggesting overproduction and relatively higher levels of farm security. These contrasting outcomes highlight that the pathways through which conflict impacts agriculture differ markedly across regions, underscoring the need for context-specific policy responses. We recommend region-specific interventions designed to mitigate the impact of conflict on agricultural households. These include enhancing market and price stability mechanisms, improving local security infrastructure, and promoting and safeguarding non-farm income opportunities, particularly in highly conflict-prone areas such as the Northeast.