Towards the Comparative Study of Domestic Influence Operations: Cyber Troops and Elite Competition in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand

Online influence operations (IO) are typically studied as isolated cases, often independent of their political context. In this study, based on 78 in-depth interviews with industry insiders, we explore the differences in the nature of IO campaigns across Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand, and investigate how this variation is linked to the political dynamics in these countries. We argue that the observed disparities in IO campaigns’ aims, organization, and funding are closely tied to the distinct nature of elite competition in each country, specifically the degree to which ruling elites harness state institutions to suppress opposition and the character of election campaigns. Whereas Indonesia’s candidate-centered election campaigns lead to fragmented, ad-hoc forms of IO, in the Philippines IO efforts are, like election campaigns, more commonly led by PR agencies. In contrast, the more state-centric and institutionalized IO campaigns in Thailand align with the substantial involvement of state institutions in electioneering in that country. We propose two reasons why IO campaigns mirror the structure of elite competition: First, the nature of political competition molds the motivations of the elites funding IO and, second, many IO campaigns are integrated into, or complement, politicians’ and parties’ official election campaign teams. With our comparative approach, we provide a deeper understanding of IO and their close alignment with national political-economic structures.