Deep Learning Reveals ENSO's Footprint on the Indian Ocean Dipole: Insights From the Eastern Pacific (American) Coast

Abstract The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) significantly influences global climate and ecosystem dynamics, yet accurate forecasting remains challenging due to its complex nature. Here, we present an interpretable deep‐learning framework, STPNet, that achieves the‐state‐of‐the‐art 8‐month forecasting of fall IOD events by leveraging sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) from CMIP6 data. Through STPNet's interpretability features and targeted sensitivity experiments, we not only confirmed previously known IOD precursors but also identified a novel precursor along the eastern Pacific (American) Coast. Subsequent lagged regression analysis revealed this precursor's connection to ENSO‐mediated coupling between extratropical and subtropical Pacific SST patterns, completing the global map of IOD precursors. Our findings substantially advance the understanding of IOD mechanisms and provide a robust framework for operational forecasting, with direct implications for global climate adaptation strategies.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2025-10-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118949
Primary Topic
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Deep Learning Reveals ENSO's Footprint on the Indian Ocean Dipole: Insights From the Eastern Pacific (American) Coast

Xiaofeng Li, Jing Wang, Haoyu Wang
Geophysical Research Letters
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
article

Deep Learning Reveals ENSO's Footprint on the Indian Ocean Dipole: Insights From the Eastern Pacific (American) Coast

Xiaofeng Li, Jing Wang, Haoyu Wang
article en

Abstract

Abstract The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) significantly influences global climate and ecosystem dynamics, yet accurate forecasting remains challenging due to its complex nature. Here, we present an interpretable deep‐learning framework, STPNet, that achieves the‐state‐of‐the‐art 8‐month forecasting of fall IOD events by leveraging sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) from CMIP6 data. Through STPNet's interpretability features and targeted sensitivity experiments, we not only confirmed previously known IOD precursors but also identified a novel precursor along the eastern Pacific (American) Coast. Subsequent lagged regression analysis revealed this precursor's connection to ENSO‐mediated coupling between extratropical and subtropical Pacific SST patterns, completing the global map of IOD precursors. Our findings substantially advance the understanding of IOD mechanisms and provide a robust framework for operational forecasting, with direct implications for global climate adaptation strategies.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 52(20)
Institute of Oceanology (CN), First Institute of Oceanography (CN), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Ocean University of China (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Openalex Percentile: Top 71%
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
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