Numerical Assessment of a High-Level Rock Failure Potential Based on a Three-Dimensional Discrete Element Model

The estimation of the area susceptible to rock failure and the prediction of its movement process are pivotal for hazard mitigation, yet they are also challenging. In this study, we proposed a novel integrated method combining field investigation, remote sensing, and three-dimensional discrete element method (DEM) simulation to achieve our goal. The field investigation and remote sensing analysis are used for the purpose of ascertaining the deformation phenomenon and the structure of the rock slope, identifying the potential failure position and area of the slope. Subsequently, a three-dimensional DEM simulation is employed to quantitatively assess the potential rock failure-affected area and movement process, based on the above potential failure information. The simulation results demonstrate that potential rock failure persists for approximately 30 s, and its movement process can be categorized into two distinct stages: acceleration and deceleration. The initial acceleration stage is characterized by a duration of 10 s, culminating in a peak average velocity of 13 m/s. The subsequent deceleration stage extends for a duration of 20 s. Notably, the maximum attainable velocity for the segment of rock mass under consideration is estimated to be 50 m/s. Furthermore, the model demonstrates the variation in fracture energy, friction energy, and kinetic energy over time. The potential affected area is 140,000 m2, and approximately 8000 m2 of residential construction will be destroyed if a rock failure occurs. It is imperative to implement measures aimed at the prevention of rock failure in order to mitigate the risk of such an occurrence.