Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts
Abstract In an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across foreign policy, human security, trade and finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts emerging from low-income countries. High-income countries can trigger cascading impacts through, for example, reduced crop exports. Our findings highlight the importance of policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities rather than isolated risks. Thus, agricultural intensification without integrated water management may exacerbate scarcity, whereas safeguarding livelihoods alleviates cascading risks related to forced migration, violent conflict and instability.
Authors
- Mikael Hildén (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0668-7195)
- Richard J. T. Klein (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9458-0944)
- Sara Talebian (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5014-2515)
- Piotr Magnuszewski (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1211-0672)
- Ilona M. Otto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4935-7660)
- Oriol Puig
- Claire Mosoni (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-3704-2795)
- Samuli Pitzén (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0398-7221)
- Ramiro Parrado (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0951-1013)
- Anja Đuranović (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0945-4984)
- Richard King (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6404-8052)
- Giacomo Bressan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7448-3664)
- Emilie Stokeld (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4258-4561)
- Katy Harris
- Magnus Benzie (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3894-6964)
- Fabien Tondel
- Hanne Knaepen
- Nico Wunderling (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3566-323X)
- Benjamin Pohl (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9339-797X)
- Sophie Desmidt
- Łukasz Jarząbek
- Christopher Reyer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1067-1492)
- Glada Lahn
- Timothy R. Carter (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4026-8859)
- R.M. Key (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5719-9079)
- Irene Monasterolo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5423-6009)
- Cornelia Auer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5925-832X)
- Adrien Detges
- Chris West (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5091-6514)
- David N. Bresch (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8431-4263)
- Francesco Bosello (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8492-219X)
- Elisa Delpiazzo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5936-017X)
- Paula Kivimaa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2812-8017)
- Ruth Townend
- Mikael Mikaelsson
- Eckart Woertz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9526-2668)
- Stefan Fronzek (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2478-8050)
- Chris Aylett
- Simon Croft (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2261-4711)
- Weronika Adamczak
- Hetty Saes-Heibel
- Jan Philipp Berndt
Institutions
- Vienna University of Economics and Business (AT)
- Goethe University Frankfurt (DE)
- Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss (CH)
- University of Helsinki (FI)
- Stockholm Environment Institute (GB)
- Chatham House (GB)
- Ca' Foscari University of Venice (IT)
- University of Graz (AT)
- German Institute for Global and Area Studies (DE)
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- Lund University (SE)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Finnish Environment Institute (FI)
- Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies (DE)
- Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (ES)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- Maastricht University (NL)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Centre for European Policy Studies (BE)
- RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (IT)
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (IT)
- Adelphi Research (DE)
- Centre for Economic Policy Research (GB)
- Stockholm Environment Institute (SE)
- University of York (GB)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2025-10-16
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2
- Primary Topic
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- European Commission
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme