Perceptions of drivers of land use and land cover change from forest to agriculture in Ethiopia

Land use and land cover (LULC) change, particularly the conversion of forests to agriculture, is a major driver of landscape fragmentation and ecosystem degradation in Ethiopia. Although these changes are well documented at national and regional scales, the perceptions of local communities regarding their underlying drivers remain poorly understood, limiting the effectiveness of landscape management strategies. This study examined perceptions of the drivers and pressures contributing to forest-to-agriculture LULC change in Ethiopia. It also aimed to identify district-specific variations to inform targeted management and policy responses. Data were collected from 1,098 randomly selected household surveys, 14 focus group discussions, 28 key informant interviews, and field observations across seven purposively selected districts: Jawi, Burie Zuria, Adami Tulu, Shebe Sembo, Gera, Gursum, and Shabeeley. Descriptive analysis was applied within the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) framework. Small-scale agriculture, charcoal production, and firewood collection were the main perceived direct drivers, while poverty, weak law enforcement, and settlement expansion were key indirect drivers. However, regional disaggregation reveals critical district-specific patterns: charcoal production and large-scale agriculture dominated in Adami Tulu; small-scale farming and forest resource extraction were most common in Shebe Sembo, Gera, Jawi, and Burie Zuria; and climate change combined with small-scale farming prevailed in Shabeeley and Gursum. High demand for farmland (82.7%), competition over communal lands (76.5%), and reliance on forest-based energy (72.6%) were major pressures, resulting in soil degradation, biodiversity loss, reduced crop yields, and increased climate vulnerability. Both local practices and systemic pressures drive the transition from forest to agriculture in Ethiopia. Addressing these challenges requires district-tailored interventions, including strengthening land tenure and law enforcement, promoting renewable energy, supporting agroforestry and climate-resilient farming, and enhancing coordination among local institutions.