Fire Risk Assessment in Informal Refugee Settlements: A Case Study of the Rohingya Refugee Camps, Cox’s Bazar

Fires pose severe threats to informal settlements, notably in refugee camps within developing nations. To devise an effective fire risk reduction strategy, a comprehensive, indicator-based risk assessment using GIS and AHP, methods commonly applied in forest fire studies, was conducted to evaluate fire hazards at the shelter level in the Rohingya Refugee Camps. The assessment incorporated 12 indicators from prior reports and available data to measure hazard exposure, vulnerability, and capacity. The risk score, derived from these components, ranged from 0 to 1 and was categorized using the INFORM risk methodology into five levels: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. Results indicated that 44.1% of the settlements face very high risk, 32.9% are at high risk, 17.2% are at moderate risk, and the remaining areas are at low to very low risk. Notably, Camps 1E, 1W, 2W, 3, 7, 9, 10, 11, 15, and NRC showed the highest proportion of high-risk shelters, whereas Camps 4Ex, 20, 20Ex, 21, 25, and 27 were identified as lower risk zones. These findings provide critical insights for targeted disaster management strategies and effective resource allocation by humanitarian agencies, enhancing fire risk mitigation in the camp and similar contexts.