Uncovering Forest and Cropland Change with High-Resolution Data in a Biodiversity Hotspot, Madagascar

The lack of reliable methods for cropland and forest monitoring remains a challenge in the Betsiboka basin and Ankarafantsika National Park (ANP), Madagascar. A key novelty of our study is the comparative analysis of multiple high-resolution datasets for 2017 and 2021 and future projections under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from 2020 to 2100 using Google Earth Engine and Python. Results indicate that forest cover has remained below ~9% in the Betsiboka basin and above ~35% in ANP, while cropland stays under 7% in both areas. Inter-dataset agreement showed high overall accuracy (OA = 0.87–0.95), with stronger agreement in ANP (Kappa = 0.68–0.90). FROM-GLC10 and ESA performed best for cropland classification in Betsiboka, while Dynamic World and ESRI were most accurate for forest, particularly in ANP. Projections suggest that by 2100, forest area in Betsiboka may increase by +230% under SSP3 and +300% under SSP5, whereas ANP could see declines up to 39% under SSP1, −2.2% SSP5, and −1.4% SSP3. The predicted minor cropland increase across both regions suggests that forest expansion is unlikely to significantly constrain agricultural land, illustrating the potential for sustainable intensification and agroforestry to address food security challenges.