Organizational and analytical support of risk-oriented management in the public sector: digital tools and challenges of uncertainty

Introduction. The key task of the state at the current stage of the transformation of the domestic economy is to form an effective system of public sector regulation, capable of ensuring the stability, effectiveness and transparency of the activities of state-owned enterprises in conditions of high uncertainty. The abolition of the Commercial Code of Ukraine and the reform of approaches to the management of state property create the prerequisites for the rejection of administrative-command methods and the transition to flexible models of regulation based on the principles of risk-based management. Problem Statement. War, recession processes, energy and food crises, instability of the regulatory environment, cyber threats and global market fluctuations require the state to use management tools that are able not only to respond to problems, but also to predict them. Risk-based management in this context appears as a new paradigm of state regulation: a comprehensive methodology that combines risk analysis and assessment with policy development, planning, monitoring and adjustment of management decisions. Purpose is theoretical and methodological substantiation of the risk-based approach as a modern management paradigm for state regulation of the public sector in the context of economic transformation and high uncertainty. Results. The factors determining the need for the implementation of this approach are analyzed, including war, global economic crises, energy and food threats, as well as internal dysfunctions of the management system. International experience is summarized, in particular the recommendations of the OECD Guidelines on Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises. The theoretical foundations of the risk-based approach, integrated with management and economic sciences, are identified. The role of digital technologies, big data, and artificial intelligence in automating monitoring and forecasting risks is emphasized. Proposals have been formulated regarding institutional, regulatory, and cultural support for the implementation of the risk-based approach. Conclusions. It is substantiated that the risk-based implementation will contribute to increasing the efficiency and resilience of the public sector, strengthening economic security, and forming a modern model of public administration focused on long-term development.