Climate change-induced threats to transhumance pastoral system in Burkina Faso, West Africa

Globally, and particularly in West Africa, transhumant pastoralism sustains livelihoods through shifting equilibrium among herders, livestock, and seasonal resources. As climate change intensifies, this balance faces mounting stress, yet remains under-documented. This study examines climate trends and farmers’ perceptions in Burkina Faso’s Kompienga Province. We combined CHIRPS and ERA5-Land data with surveys of 271 farmers (55 % livestock-oriented; 45 % crop-oriented). Data preprocessing and extraction used Google Earth Engine; analyses included monthly matrix plots, annual time series, and decadal Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of climate indices in R. The PCA was also applied to farmer perception data. Results show significant shifts in monthly temperature and rainfall during 2011–2024 relative to the 1981–2010 climatology. Rainfall intensity increased, especially in August in recent years. Temperature warmed markedly from March to June, with most post-2010 observations exceeding reference means. Climate extremes indicate coherent warming across cold, hot, and wet indices suggesting that any apparent rain resumption is rapidly counterbalanced by heat stress driven by accelerated warming. Farmers report major impacts on pastoral systems: pasture scarcity, disrupted transhumance corridors, and altered mobility patterns. About twenty-three fodder species are perceived as disappeared from grazing lands. Perceptions diverge by livelihood: crop-oriented households emphasize water access, earlier departures, and longer stays in host zones; livestock-oriented households stress route changes and destination shifts. While host countries’ pastures support herd production, pastoralists face excessive taxation, reprisals, and conflicts during transhumance. These findings highlight the need for policy interventions to harmonize transhumance schedules and ease the pressures on crop- and livestock-oriented communities. • An upward trend observed in cold, hot, and wet indices across the study zones. • The trend toward rain resumption is rapidly offset by heat stress due to associated rapid warming in the zone. • Threat to pastoral systems, including pasture scarcity, disrupted transhumance routes, and altered migration patterns. • Approximately 23 fodder species have disappeared from grazing lands. • Crop- and livestock-oriented farmers’ perceptions differed on water availability and early transhumance patterns.