How well are Our Whales? Assessing key risks to Bryde's whales in the Gulf of Thailand using integrated Delphi-AHP method

Balaenoptera edeni (Bryde's whale complex) plays a pivotal role in maintaining marine ecosystem balance. However, the Bryde's whale population is increasingly threatened by anthropogenic pressures, including habitat disruption and food scarcity. Despite these challenges, the lack of comprehensive scientific data impeded conservation efforts, particularly in the Gulf of Thailand. This study addresses these knowledge gaps by examining the key factors influencing Bryde's whale populations, integrating interdisciplinary principles, and applying robust analytical tools such as the Delphi method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This research identifies and prioritizes the risk factors affecting Bryde's whales in the upper Gulf of Thailand. The ten sub-factors influencing the Bryde's whale population—non-aggressive behavior, coastal dwellers, long lifespan and top consumer, climate change, water pollution, underwater noise, habitat loss due to coastal development, spatial use conflict, unregulated whale watching, and competition for food resource by human—were synthesized using the Delphi method. A hierarchical model structured these sub-factors into two overarching groups (environmental and human-induced factors) to identify the most critical risk factors affecting the Bryde's whale population. The findings reveal that human-induced threats, such as spatial use conflicts, competition with humans for food resources, water pollution, and unregulated whale-watching practices, are of the highest concern. The integrated Delphi and AHP methods effectively evaluated these risks, allowing for the systematic analysis of stakeholder input and reducing decision-making bias through pairwise comparisons. The results offer valuable insights for developing targeted conservation strategies to safeguard the Bryde's whale population in the upper Gulf of Thailand. • Pioneering research identifies critical risk factors for Bryde's whales in the Gulf of Thailand. • Integrating the Delphi-AHP method identifies and prioritizes risks to the Bryde's whale population. • The most influential risk factors identified are primarily human-induced activities.