A Comprehensive Risk Assessment Framework for Backup Power Transfer Systems

Ensuring uninterrupted electricity supply to critical industrial loads demands robust real-time risk management for power transfer systems. This paper introduces an integrated framework for assessing and protecting Automatic Transfer Switches (ATS), Static Transfer Switches (STS), and Backup Transfer Devices (BZT). The method combines probabilistic failure modeling (Weibull/exponential distributions), qualitative analysis via FTA/ETA/FMEA, and Monte Carlo simulations to forecast reliability. A real-time diagnostic module using a multi-state Markov model enables predictive maintenance and intervention. A hierarchical protection strategy spanning device, control, and management layers is implemented. Field deployment across 41 devices in Ningbo demonstrated $76 \%$ reduction in switching failures, $47.8 \%$ faster transfer times, and 1.2-year payback period. The framework’s adaptability to smart grids and industrial environments provides a scalable model for cross-sector power resilience enhancement with $\leq 2.1 \%$ failure rate.