Research on New Energy Output Time Series Simulation Method based on Markov Chain

Aiming at the influence of the timing characteristics of new energy output and load on the assessment of grid consumption capacity, this paper proposes an improved Markov chain timing simulation method. By analyzing the actual operation data of a prefecture-level city and constructing the state transfer probability matrix considering the seasonal characteristics, a time series simulation model of photovoltaic power and load is established. The simulation results show that the statistical error between the new energy output sequence generated by this method and the actual historical data is less than 3%, which verifies the validity of the model and provides reliable data support for the assessment of the new energy consumption capacity of the power grid.