Projection of Wind Energy Resources over Northern China’s Terrestrial Region Based on CMIP6 Coupled Models

Under global warming conditions, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of China’s wind energy resources will be affected, making it crucial to utilize reliable climate models for projecting long-term trends in future wind energy resources. Therefore, based on 100 m height (wind turbine hub height) wind speed data from the China Meteorological Administration Reanalysis (CMA-RA V1.5) and 10 m wind speed data from seven CMIP6 global climate models developed by Australia, China, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and Norway, this study evaluated the simulation performance of individual models and multi-model ensembles for historical wind power density at $\mathbf{1 0 0 ~ m}$ height over northern China’s terrestrial region and projected future trends under the medium emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). The results demonstrate that CESM2WACCM, EC-Earth3, NorESM2-MM, and BCC-CSM2-MR exhibit superior simulation performance, with multi-model ensemble improving upon individual model simulations. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, central Inner Mongolia shows increasing wind power density trends at $\mathbf{1 0 0 ~ m}$ height, while northeastern China displays decreasing trends. Compared with the historical period, future wind energy resources at $\mathbf{1 0 0 ~ m}$ height generally decrease, with reductions exceeding $40 \mathrm{~W} / \mathrm{m}^{2}$ being particularly pronounced in northeastern China. It is recommended to optimize wind power investment distribution and prioritize controlling wind farm development scale in northeastern China to mitigate risks associated with declining resource potential.