Analysis of Pumped Storage Hydropower Demand-supply Gap in East China

This study proposes a four-step integrated framework to quantify the demand-supply gap of PSH (pumped storage hydropower) in East China (comprising Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui provinces and Shanghai Municipality) for the target years 2030 and 2035. Firstly, theoretical demand is derived from hourly power-system simulations that co-optimize peak-shaving and renewable curtailment reduction using a peak-valley-difference model corrected by a $10-20 \%$ renewable-integration coefficient. Secondly, supply-side capacity is assessed by linking projectspecific construction timelines, environmental-approval status and equipment-delivery schedules to probabilistic commissioning curves for 23 approved PSH projects. Thirdly, provincial gaps are calculated by comparing demand and supply under 2030 and 2035 horizons and are stress-tested via sensitivity analysis on loadgrowth and renewable-deployment variations. Finally, interregional allocation scenarios are generated to prioritize surplus provinces (Zhejiang, Anhui) for deficit provinces (Jiangsu, Shanghai). Results show that East China will need 72.8 GW (Gigawatt) by 2035, leaving an aggregate gap of 29.715 GW (Shanghai 3.72 GW, Jiangsu 13.97 GW, Anhui 11.95 GW) while Zhejiang presents a 2.34 GW surplus. The framework provides actionable insights for PSH planning, cross-provincial trading and renewable integration. (Abstract)