Study on Electricity Demand Forecasting and Load Characterization in East China Region

With the rapid economic development and ongoing energy transition in China, electricity demand in East China-one of the country’s most developed regions-continues to grow while becoming increasingly volatile. The expansion of new energy capacity has significantly altered load characteristics and raised challenges for system dispatch. This paper systematically forecasts the electricity demand and analyzes the load profiles of East China for 2030 and 2035, considering regional socio-economic development, energy structure evolution, and power grid operation. Results indicate that electricity demand will reach 2.82 trillion kWh by 2035, with a peak load of approximately 560 GW. Jiangsu and Zhejiang will face urgent needs for flexibility resources, Anhui must address grid stability under high renewable penetration, and Shanghai will depend heavily on external power and smart dispatch systems. This study provides valuable reference for future grid planning, pumped storage layout, and integration strategies of renewable energy.