Past Trends and Future Outlook of Maize Crop Production Pattern in Pakistan

Maize crop has global importance owing to its human food, animal feed and various industrial applications. It is one of the major crops in Pakistan having a share of around 10 % in crops GDP. This work strives to capture the historical pattern of transformation in the provincial shares in maize crop production from 2001-2023 using Markov chain model followed by extrapolation from 2024-2030 in business as usual (BAU) scenario that neglects any potential changes like those in climate, technology, local and global markets, and supply/demand profile in future. Maize is one of the crops grown in four provinces of Pakistan, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhaw, Baluchistan and Sindh in decreasing order of their crop shares of 77.45 %, 22.36 %, 0.12 % and 0.08 % during the era respectively. Total maize crop production in the country incremented from 1.66 – 9.74 million metric ton (MMT) during 2001-2023 at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.36 %. The maize crop production will rise form 10.23 – 12.82 MMT during 2024 – 2030 at CAGR of 4.00 %. Average provincial shares will be 91.79%, 8.15%, 0.05% and 0.04% during the era. Punjab province will prevail as the leading maize crop producer in Pakistan with a shares expansion trend. State interventions are required to diversify the crop production landscape rather than concentrated production in the province of Punjab. This study may be of interest for a wider global scientific readership especially within the agriculture sector related to countrywide maize crop planning, forecasting, farming, marketing, and trade, etc.