Spatial Fertility Variation in China: The Role of Population Composition, Context and Spillover

ABSTRACT This study analyses spatial variation in fertility and its determinants, including their direct and spillover impact, in China. We apply spatial regression models to the 2000 population census. The results show, first, that there is significant spatial variation in fertility at the county level in China and that counties with similar fertility levels tend to cluster together. Second, the total fertility rate (TFR) is higher in counties with a smaller proportion of highly educated females, a larger proportion of agricultural workers, a larger share of the married population, and a larger proportion of ethnic minorities. Higher GDP per capita is associated with lower TFR. This study highlights that both population composition and context can explain spatial variation in fertility in China, indicating that individuals' characteristics as well as the context in which they live influence their fertility behaviour. It additionally emphasises the spillover impact of population composition and context from neighbouring counties on the fertility level in a given county.