Scenario analysis using community insights for improving local food system planning: Application of a climate-biodiversity-health framework

Addressing the complexities of local food systems planning requires integrating community insights to design policies that meet stakeholder expectations and guide targeted interventions. This study employs systems to analyze local food systems planning within a Climate-Biodiversity-Health framework. By gathering stakeholder input and community perspectives, it aims to identify critical leverage points within the complex network of interconnected challenges affecting food systems. Using a survey designed around the connections of a systems map, 138 responses were gathered, and 15 nodes functioning as leverage points were identified across various domains, including climate, biodiversity, food, and governance. Mental Modeler software was used for a ‘what-if’ scenario analysis to explore the potential implications of the identified leverage points on overall food systems concerning climate, biodiversity, and health factors. This research contributes methodological and empirical insights to the literature by experimenting with a systems-based approach for comparing perspectives of practitioners and broader community members on food systems issues and strategies. The research revealed both areas of alignment and divergence that highlight the need for planning approaches that are effective and publicly trusted. The study identifies a mix of agro-ecological and governance interventions for building a resilient food system that supports climate action, biodiversity, and community well-being. Furthermore, the study aims to showcase the practical application of community knowledge in system analysis and intervention identification, contributing to the advancement of sustainable and resilient food systems.