Solar Activity Forecasting and North-South Asymmetry

According to the generally accepted theory, the field of local active regions is generated from the poloidal magnetic field.The field in the polar regions, which is measured directly by magnetographs, can be a proxy of the latter.It has been shown that the mean-field dynamo is undoubtedly the main mechanism generating solar activity and the 11-year cycle.However, the magnetic flux generated by the dynamo, being the genetic basis of solar activity, still does not allow unambiguously linking the characteristics of the magnetic field with other indices of solar activity, including the best-known one -the sunspot number.Magnetic fields of active regions and spots are formed from the mean magnetic flux.Its most important properties are the threshold character and the conservation of the total flux.Therefore, a completely reliable longterm forecast of SSN is possible after the occurrence of an equatorial wave approximately 18 months before the maximum.The processes in leptocline play a decisive role in this case.