The interprovincial circulation of vegetables in China and its impact on virtual water and virtual land resources

The spatial mismatch between food consumption and water-land resources affects food security and the sustainable use of water–land resources in China. The circulation of vegetables between provinces has alleviated the supply pressure of national vegetable basket products to some extent, but its impact on water–land resources requires further research. Therefore, based on the optimal consumer utility concept of the CHINAGRO model, with the goal of minimizing freight costs, a simulation study was conducted on the circulation of vegetables between provinces in China from 2020 to 2022 using linear optimization methods. Additionally, the concepts of “virtual water” and “virtual land” were utilized to estimate the implied circulation of water–land resources in the inter-provincial vegetable circulation and to explore its impact on the country’s water–land resources. The results show that: (1) China’s vegetable production can generally meet the domestic demand, but there is a huge difference between supply and demand among provinces, and more than half of the provinces have vegetable shortages; (2) The circulation of vegetables accounted for 27.43% of the national vegetable production, showing obvious regional circulation characteristics. (3) In terms of water and land resources, the water resources implied in vegetable circulation accounted for 19.66% of the total water resources required for vegetable production in China, and the land resources accounted for 18.76%. Although the circulation of vegetables has alleviated the problem of land resource mismatch and improved the efficiency of land resource use to a certain extent, it has also led to the decline of water resource use efficiency in China. This study can provide important theoretical basis for the cultivation and transportation of vegetables between regions, as well as the comprehensive regulation and optimization of water and land resource utilization. At the same time, it can provide decision-making reference for the country to promote the sustainable transformation and development of the agricultural food system, improve the utilization rate of water and land resources, and formulate agricultural product planning and layout policies.