Impact of urban planning on ecosystem services supply-demand balance: Stormwater retention and recreation in Chiba, Japan

Sustainable management of ecosystem services is a critical global challenge, as reflected in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. However, few studies have analyzed zoning’s impact on ecosystem services supply and demand via land-use areas and composition. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of land-use zoning on ecosystem services supply-demand balance through landscape patterns in Chiba Prefecture, Japan. Using data from various sources, including the Japan Land-use and Land Cover Map, and employing multiple comparison analyses, we examined how different zoning types, including urbanization promotion areas (UPA) and urbanization control areas, affect landscape patterns and ecosystem service supply and demand. The findings revealed that urbanization in UPA and unzoned urban planning areas with use districts (WUD) led to significantly reduced greenspace and increased fragmentation, resulting in decreased stormwater retention supply and heightened demand. Specifically, UPA exhibited the highest fragmentation and lowest greenspace area among the zones, while the demand for stormwater retention outpaced supply in both UPA and WUD. In contrast, recreational services maintained a balanced supply-demand ratio across all zones. This study provides valuable insights for urban planners seeking sustainable practices aligned with global biodiversity targets and emphasizes the importance of policy frameworks to prevent greenspace fragmentation in areas of rapid urbanization. • Urban planning affects ecosystem services supply-demand balance in Chiba. • Zoning impacts stormwater retention supply and demand through greenspace changes. • Recreation services maintain balanced supply-demand across urban and zoned areas. • Findings guide sustainable urban planning aligned with biodiversity goals.