From Dawn to dusk: Maximizing revenue with unconventional solar panel installations in the setting of MIBEL

The integration of photovoltaic (PV) energy into the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL) has significantly altered electricity pricing dynamics, leading to the emergence of the so called “duck curve” in this market. This study explores unconventional PV installations with orientations that are not optimal for energy generation but optimized to maximize total revenue. This approach aims to align energy production with peak electricity prices in the morning and evening, maximizing electricity generation outside the hours of maximum ideal generation. Using historical production data and national capacity forecasts, this study creates a model for energy generation and price predictions in the MIBEL zone. The model indicates that, currently, vertical bifacial east-west installations produce as much revenue as traditional south-facing systems and projects them to earn 1.86 times more in 2027 and 2.8 times more in 2030. For monofacial systems the optimum orientation for revenue is shown to shift, moving to higher tilt angles and rotating the azimuth either eastwards or westwards depending on location. This shift becomes increasingly significant with higher installed capacities, even reaching the point where vertically oriented east or west facing systems yield the same revenue as conventional south-facing tilted installations, when the installed capacity of solar PV in the MIBEL zone reaches 71GW. While these quantitative predictions are subject to limitations and uncertainties in future capacity growth and market conditions, the result still highlights the potential of unconventional PV installations. They can better align energy production with peak pricing times, offering a promising solution for optimizing revenue streams and mitigating grid imbalances in high-penetration markets like Portugal and Spain. • Predicts MIBEL price trends with rising renewable energy penetration. • Vertical Bifacial east/west PV matches south-facing revenue at current 2024 prices. • Vertical east/west PV revenue predicted to outperform south-facing in future. • Orientations for max. energy and revenue are separating and will diverge further. • Longitude will become important due to solar phase shift relative to market zone.