Predictive Modelling of Maize Yield Under Different Crop Density Using a Machine Learning Approach

In the face of increasing climate variability, understanding the dynamics of plant-to-plant interactions within crops is becoming increasingly important. This study aimed to examine plant responses to varying intensities of inter-plant competition, induced bz different planting densities, to enhance the accuracy of future yield prediction models. Six hybrids were grown at three planting densities (S1, S4, S7). Grain yield and yield components were estimated at four developmental points during grain filling (V1 to V4). These regression models and machine learning (ML) were applied to predict maize production under variable weather conditions. The factor year was the main source of variability, with less favourable conditions in the second year (G2) reducing yield by approximately 1–2%. Lower planting density (S1) improved individual plant development and yield components, while maximum density (S7) resulted in higher grain yield despite reduced individual performance. Hybrid H5 showed strong tolerance to high density, producing the highest yield under S7 conditions. Machine learning models accurately predicted key seed quality traits—moisture, oil, and protein—with performance metrics exceeding 80% accuracy. Specifically, R2 values reached 0.82 for moisture content and 0.77 for oil concentration, indicating strong predictive capability. These findings support careful selection of hybrids and optimal planting density strategies in future cropping systems to increase yield and maintain seed quality in different environments.