Risk Assessment of New Distribution Network Dispatching Operations Considering Multiple Uncertain Factors

In traditional scheduling operations, dispatchers mainly rely on SCADA/EMS systems or personal experience. However, with access to a large number of new energy sources, the scale of the distribution network continues to expand, and its topology becomes increasingly complex, leading to potential security risks in scheduling operations. Therefore, it is very important to carry out risk assessments before scheduling operations. In this paper, risk theory is introduced into the field of distribution network scheduling operations, and a new risk assessment method is proposed considering various uncertain factors in the distribution network. In order to comprehensively analyze the influence of uncertainty factors in the operational process of a new distribution network, the output probability models of wind power, photovoltaic power, and load are first constructed in this study. Then, the improved Latin hypercube sampling method is used to extract the operating state of the distribution network system from the probability model, and the node voltage over-limit and line power flow overload are used as indicators to measure the severity of the consequences so as to establish a quantitative scheduling operation risk assessment system and analyze its framework in detail. Finally, simulation analysis is carried out in the improved IEEE-RTS79 test system: taking 15–25 lines from the operation state to the maintenance state as an example, this paper analyzes the influence of different locations and capacities of wind and solar access on the scheduling operation risk of distribution networks. The results can provide a reference for dispatchers to prevent risks before operation.