Forecasting the Development of Regional Labor Markets on the Example of the Rostov Region and New Regions of the Russian Federation: Methodological Approaches and Empirical Analysis

The article presents a comprehensive study of the dynamics and spatial structure of regional labor markets using the example of the Rostov region and the new subjects of the Russian Federation – Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. Based on empirical data from the digital employment platform "City of Works 2025", a comparative analysis of key labor market indicators was conducted: average, median and modal wages, as well as the monthly dynamics of their changes. Signs of structural polarization and institutional instability characteristic of transformational labor markets have been identified, including a significant gap between the modal (22,000 rubles in the Zaporizhia region) and average wages (59,069 rubles), which indicates the formation of a dual labor market. A spatial econometric model (SAR) was constructed and verified, confirming the hypothesis of the dominant role of the Rostov region as an integration anchor: the spatial autocorrelation coefficient p = 0.65 indicates a strong influence of salaries in the "anchor" region on the level of wages in neighboring territories. The results show that the most accurate forecasts are achieved with the synthetic application of econometric methods, taking into account spatial autocorrelation and nonlinear dynamics. The study forms a theoretical and methodological basis for the development of a scientifically sound regional employment policy aimed at smoothing territorial disparities and the sustainable integration of new regions into a single socio-economic system of the Russian Federation.