Core–Periphery Dynamics and Spatial Inequalities in the African Context: A Case Study of Greater Casablanca

Greater Casablanca, one of Africa’s largest metropolitan regions, is undergoing significant spatial and demographic transformation. Yet, the underlying patterns of these dynamics remain poorly understood. This study investigates population dynamics and spatial inequalities in Greater Casablanca between 2014 and 2024. The analysis combines geospatial data, regression modeling, and clustering techniques to explore the interplay between demographic change, housing affordability, public-transport accessibility, and economic activity, providing a data-driven perspective on how these factors shape spatial inequalities and the region’s urban development trajectory. The results reveal a clear core–periphery divide. The central prefecture has lost population despite continued land consumption, while peripheral communes have experienced rapid demographic and economic expansion. This growth is strongly associated with affordable housing and high rates of new-firm formation, but it occurs where transport access remains weakest. Cluster analysis identifies four socio-spatial types, ranging from a shrinking but well-served core to fast-growing, poorly connected peripheries. The study underscores the need for integrated policy interventions to improve transport connectivity, implement inclusive housing strategies, and manage economic decentralization in ways that foster balanced and sustainable metropolitan development. By situating Greater Casablanca’s trajectory within global urbanization debates, this research extends core–periphery and shrinking-city frameworks to a North African context and provides evidence-based insights to support progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 11.