Optimal Sizing of an Off-Grid Hybrid Energy System with Metaheuristics and Meteorological Forecasting Based on Wavelet Transform and Long Short-Term Memory Networks

This study proposes an integrated framework for the optimal sizing of off-grid hybrid energy systems, combining photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, battery storage, a diesel generator, and an inverter. The methodology uniquely integrates long-term meteorological forecasting through a hybrid approach based on the Discrete Wavelet Transform and Long Short-Term Memory networks, together with metaheuristic optimization techniques (Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm), to minimize the system’s total annual cost. A case study was conducted in Guanambi, Brazil, using ten years (2012–2021) of hourly data on wind speed, solar irradiance, and ambient temperature. Forecasting results show that the hybrid Discrete Wavelet Transform–Long Short-Term Memory model outperforms the conventional Long Short-Term Memory approach, reducing error metrics and improving predictive accuracy. In the optimization stage, Particle Swarm Optimization consistently achieved lower costs and more stable convergence compared to the Genetic Algorithm. The optimal configuration comprised 450 photovoltaic panels, 10 wind turbines, 66 lithium iron phosphate battery, and 1 diesel generator, yielding a total annual cost of $105,381.17, a cost of energy of $0.1243/kWh, and minimal diesel dependence ($8825.89 annually). The proposed framework demonstrates robustness, economic viability, and applicability for providing sustainable and reliable electricity in isolated regions with high renewable energy potential.