Comparative analysis of climate change impact on Italian agriculture: a Ricardian regression analysis

Abstract This study assesses the impact of climate change on Italian agriculture using the Ricardian approach. Through a comparative analysis of farm-level data from 2008 to 2010 and 2018–2020, we evaluate the effects of temperature and precipitation on farmland values. Although national-level marginal effects appear visually stable across the two periods, statistical tests reveal significant differences for certain seasonal precipitation effects, confirming the temporal instability of Ricardian estimates. Seasonal and regional heterogeneity remain substantial, particularly for precipitation. Future climate projections suggest potential land value losses ranging from − 6 to − 39% by 2100, depending on emission scenarios. These findings highlight the need for regularly updated impact assessments and region-specific adaptation strategies. The results are consistent with the possibility that agricultural climate sensitivity evolves over time, potentially reflecting changing environmental, institutional, or behavioral conditions.