Prioritization of Coastal Environmental Risks under Climate Change in Quang Ngai, Vietnam: An Integrated Analytic Network Process–Risk Score Approach

Coastal regions are increasingly threatened by climate change, which amplifies the frequency and severity of extreme weather events and exacerbates environmental vulnerabilities.Quang Ngai Province in central Vietnam, characterized by its complex terrain and high exposure, represents a critical case where climate-induced risks require systematic evaluation and prioritization.In this study, coastal environmental risks were prioritized through the integration of the Analytic Network Process (ANP) with the Risk Score (RS) index.A network structure of risk criteria was developed, and expert knowledge from twelve specialists with substantial academic and practical experience was elicited to perform pairwise comparisons.A hyperlink matrix was constructed, and aggregate weights were derived using a constraint matrix.These weights were linearly interpolated to determine impact levels, which were subsequently combined with probability estimates to compute the RS for each criterion.The results revealed that coastal erosion and landslides represent the most critical risk (RS = 11.45),followed by flooding in low-lying areas (RS = 8.99), while economic and livelihood losses in coastal communities and the occurrence of strong storms and extreme weather events were ranked equally (RS = 5.00).These risks are both highly probable and capable of producing extensive ecological, infrastructural, and socioeconomic disruptions.The methodological framework offers a robust basis for adaptive policymaking, the prioritization of resource allocation, and the incorporation of climate risk management into coastal development planning.The findings underscore the necessity of proactive, evidence-based interventions to safeguard vulnerable coastal systems and communities against intensifying climate change impacts.