Quantifying spatial uncertainty to improve soil predictions in data-sparse regions

Abstract. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are valuable tools for predicting soil properties using large datasets. However, a common challenge in soil sciences is the uneven distribution of soil samples, which often results from past sampling projects that heavily sample certain areas while leaving similar yet geographically distant regions under-sampled. One potential solution to this problem is to transfer an already trained model to other similar regions. Robust spatial uncertainty quantification is crucial for this purpose, yet this is often overlooked in current research. We address this issue by using a Bayesian deep learning technique, Laplace approximations, to quantify spatial uncertainty. This produces a probability measure encoding where the model’s prediction is deemed to be reliable and where a lack of data should lead to a high uncertainty. We train such an ANN on a soil landscape dataset from a specific region in southern Germany and then transfer the trained model to another unseen but, to some extent, similar region without any further model training. The model effectively generalized alluvial patterns, demonstrating its ability to recognize repetitive features of river systems. However, the model showed a tendency to favour overrepresented soil units, underscoring the importance of balancing training datasets to reduce overconfidence in dominant classes. Quantifying uncertainty in this way allows stakeholders to better identify regions and settings in need of further data collection, enhancing decision-making and prioritizing efforts in data collection. Our approach is computationally lightweight and can be added post hoc to existing deep learning solutions for soil prediction, thus offering a practical tool to improve soil property predictions in under-sampled areas, as well as optimizing future sampling strategies, ensuring that resources are allocated efficiently for maximum data coverage and accuracy.