Driving Factors of Spatial–Temporal Differences in Agricultural Energy Consumption Evolution in the Yellow River Basin: A Perspective of Water–Energy–Food–Land–Population Nexus

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a core region for agricultural production in China; however, its agricultural energy consumption exhibits significant spatial–temporal differences, and it is confronted with the practical demand for the coordination of low-carbon transition and food security. Investigating the driving factors of agricultural energy consumption in the YRB is crucial for optimizing its agricultural energy structure, advancing low-carbon agricultural development, and offering targeted support for regional agricultural sustainability. Based on the data of YRB from 2000 to 2021, this paper employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to decompose the driving factors of agricultural energy consumption in the basin by examining the interrelationships among five key factors: water, energy, food, land, and population. The results showed the following: (1) Per capita food production efficiency effect is the main factor driving the increase in agricultural energy consumption, followed by the water consumption output efficiency effect, the effective irrigation rate effect, the actual irrigation ratio effect, and the population scale effect. (2) The agricultural employment structure effect, the energy consumption output efficiency effect, the intensity of agricultural acreage effect, and the irrigation quota effect have reduced agricultural energy consumption. (3) Specifically, in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Henan, the largest incremental effect is the per capita food production efficiency effect. However, the primary driver in the remaining six provinces is the water consumption output efficiency effect. Regarding the reduction effect, the largest driver in Gansu, Shanxi and Shandong is the energy consumption output efficiency effect. Further, this paper analyzes the drivers of spatial differences in agricultural energy consumption in nine places. The research results can provide theoretical support and practical references for formulating targeted regional policies for the low-carbon transition of agricultural energy in the YRB.