Non-Invasive Inversion and Characteristic Analysis of Soil Moisture in 0–300 cm Agricultural Soil Layers

Accurate profiling of deep (20–300 cm) soil moisture is crucial for precision irrigation but remains technically challenging and costly at operational scales. We systematically benchmark eight regression algorithms—including linear regression, Lasso, Ridge, elastic net, support vector regression, multi-layer perceptron (MLP), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting trees (GBDT)—that use easily accessible inputs of 0–20 cm surface soil moisture (SSM) and ten meteorological variables to non-invasively infer soil moisture at fourteen 20 cm layers. Data from a typical agricultural site in Wenxi, Shanxi (2020–2022), were divided into training and testing datasets based on temporal order (2020–2021 for training, 2022 for testing) and standardized prior to modeling. Across depths, non-linear ensemble models significantly outperform linear baselines. Ridge Regression achieves the highest accuracy at 0–20 cm, SVR performs best at 20–40 cm, and MLP yields consistently optimal performance across deep layers from 60 cm to 300 cm (R2 = 0.895–0.978, KGE = 0.826–0.985). Although ensemble models like RF and GBDT exhibit strong fitting ability, their generalization performance under temporal validation is relatively limited. Model interpretability combining SHAP, PDP, and ALE shows that surface soil moisture is the dominant predictor across all depths, with a clear attenuation trend and a critical transition zone between 160 and 200 cm. Precipitation and humidity primarily drive shallow to mid-layers (20–140 cm), whereas temperature variables gain relative importance in deeper profiles (200–300 cm). ALE analysis eliminates feature correlation biases while maintaining high predictive accuracy, confirming surface-to-deep information transmission mechanisms. We propose a depth-adaptive modeling strategy by assigning the best-performing model at each soil layer, enabling practical non-invasive deep soil moisture prediction for precision irrigation and water resource management.