Voxel-Based Dose–Toxicity Modeling for Predicting Post-Radiotherapy Toxicity: A Critical Perspective

This perspective paper critically examines the emerging role of voxel-based analysis (VBA), also referred to as image-based data mining (IBDM), in dose-toxicity modeling for post-radiotherapy toxicity assessment. These techniques offer promising insights into localized organ subregions associated with toxicity, yet their current application faces substantial methodological and validation challenges. Based on prior studies and practical experience, we highlight seven key limitations: (i) lack of clinical validation for dose-toxicity models, (ii) strong dependence of results on statistical method selection (parametric vs. nonparametric), (iii) insensitivity of commonly used tests to uniform dose scaling, (iv) influence of tail selection (one- vs. two-tailed tests) on statistical power, (v) frequent misapplication of permutation testing, (vi) reliance on dose as the sole predictor while neglecting patient-, treatment-, and genomic-level covariates, and (vii) misinterpretation of voxel-wise associations as causal in the absence of appropriate causal inference frameworks. Collectively, these limitations can obscure clinically relevant dose differences, inflate false-positive or false-negative findings, obscure effect direction, introduce confounded associations, and ultimately yield inconsistent identification of high-risk subregions in organs at risk and poor reproducibility across studies. Notably, current univariable VBA/IBDM approaches should be regarded as hypothesis-generating rather than clinical decision-making tools, as unvalidated findings risk premature translation into clinical practice. Advancing personalized radiotherapy requires rigorous outcome validation, integration of multivariable and causal modeling strategies, and incorporation of clinical and genomic data. By moving beyond dose-only predictor models, VBA/IBDM can achieve greater biological relevance, reliability, and clinical utility, supporting more precise and individualized radiotherapy strategies.