Development of a Neural Network to Predict Optimal IOP Reduction in Glaucoma Management

Glaucoma management relies on lowering intraocular pressure (IOP), but determining the target reduction at presentation is challenging, particularly in normal-tension glaucoma (NTG). We developed and internally validated a neural network regression model using retrospective clinical data from Qiu et al. (2015), including 270 patients (118 with NTG). A single-layer artificial neural network with five nodes was trained in MATLAB R2024b using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Inputs included demographic, refractive, structural, and functional parameters, with IOP reduction as the output. Data were split into 65% training, 15% validation, and 20% testing, with training repeated 10 times. Model performance was strong and consistent (average RMSE: 1.90 ± 0.29 training, 2.18 ± 0.34 validation, 2.11 ± 0.30 testing; Pearson's r: 0.92 ± 0.02, 0.88 ± 0.02, 0.88 ± 0.04). The best-performing model achieved RMSEs of 1.57, 2.90, and 1.77 with r values of 0.93, 0.91, and 0.93, respectively. Feature ablation revealed significant contributions from IOP, axial length, CCT, diagnosis, VCDR, spherical equivalent, mean deviation, and laterality. This study demonstrates that a simple neural network can reliably predict individualized IOP reduction targets, supporting personalized glaucoma management and improved outcomes.