Methodology for developing scenario-based forecasts of small and medium-sized farming entities in the agro-industrial complex of the Novosibirsk region, taking into account the creation of a digital ecosystem

The Novosibirsk Region has all the necessary conditions to move the agro-industrial complex to a higher technological level, with digitalisation of economic sectors taking centre stage. The agro-industrial complex is one of the most dynamically developing sectors of the regional economy, which is due, among other things, to the introduction of digital technologies. Nevertheless, their potential in the region’s agriculture is not fully disclosed, as digitalisation predominantly covers large agricultural holdings and enterprises, while small and medium-sized farms (SMEs) face difficulties due to the high cost of such solutions. To address this imbalance, it is necessary to create a digital ecosystem in the regional agro-industrial complex, which will provide, first and foremost, small and medium-sized farms with access to digital services and markets. The further development of SMEs in the Novosibirsk Region’s agro-industrial complex, taking into account the integration of digital tools and services, requires the development of forecast scenarios.