Export of Russian medical education: challenges and prospects

Global competition for human recourses significantly increases the importance of education exports, including for Russia. The national development goals include increasing the number of foreign students up to 500,000 by 2030. Aim. To analyze the dynamics of the number of foreign medical students at Russian universities, with a perspective up to 2030, and to provide proposals for approaches to increasing the number of foreign students. Materials and methods. Data on the admission, number and graduation of foreign medical students were obtained from the federal statistical form “Information on the organization carrying out educational activities in higher education programs” posted on the website of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russia. Statistical processing methods were used to analyze the data; forecasts were obtained using simple exponential smoothing methods. Results. The total number of students in medical specialties in 2024 showed an increase, amounting to 79,709 and 6740 people for extra-budgetary and budgetary forms of education funding, which corresponded to 24 % and 14 % of foreigners in all areas of training. Taking into account current admission rates and the average length of study in medical specialties, the estimated number of international students in medical programs may reach 140–142 thousand people by 2030 (excluding quota students). This indicator can be significantly influenced by the number of students who are expelled during their studies (up to 33 % in some specialties), which requires definite attention. Conclusion. Foreign citizens are interested in medical education in Russia, but to ensure sustainable growth during the period from 2025 to 2030, it is necessary to implement a comprehensive strategy aimed at increasing the attractiveness and competitiveness of Russian medical education, as well as creating favorable conditions for foreign students.