Research on Carbon Emission Flows in Power Systems Considering the Uncertainty of Wind and Solar Power

As new energy sources are gradually integrated into the power grid to replace primary energy generation and achieve carbon emission reduction, the distribution pattern of power flow in the power system will change accordingly. Accurately calculating the carbon flow of the power system and deeply exploring the impact of the uncertainty of the injected power of wind power and photovoltaic power on the system’s carbon emission flow have become key challenges that urgently need to be overcome in the field of carbon flow-based operation and control of the power system. Based on this, this paper aims to study the impact of carbon emission distribution in power systems considering the uncertainties of wind and solar power, providing a theoretical basis for quantitatively assessing the impact of new energy integration into the power grid on system carbon emissions. Firstly, the application of the counter-current tidal current method in the calculation of deterministic carbon emission flows is studied, and the influence of wind and solar uncertainties on the carbon flow rate is analyzed. On this basis, by integrating the carbon flow calculation formula of the counter-current tidal current method, the correlation matrix of balanced units, conventional units, nodes, branches, loads and active power losses is constructed. Meanwhile, in view of the fluctuation characteristics of wind speed and light intensity, the influencing factors of the variation of wind power injection on the carbon flow distribution of the system are analyzed. Finally, taking the IEEE14-node system as the research object, the accuracy of the relevant methods and models was verified by calculating the average influence factor of balanced nodes on the carbon flow rates of nodes and branches under the condition of wind and solar injection power.