Risk Assessment of PE Gas Pipeline System Based on Principal Component Analysis and System Dynamics Model

When laying urban gas pipelines, polyethylene (PE) gas pipelines are gradually replacing metal pipelines due to their corrosion resistance, low cost, and long lifespan. Traditional corrosion analysis methods for metal pipelines cannot be applied to their risk assessment. The research on PE gas pipeline system risk assessment using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and System Dynamics Modeling (SDM) mainly focuses on analyzing the failure mechanism of PE pipelines. By integrating urban gas pipeline detection results and pipeline patrol records, risk assessment indicators are constructed based on basic pipeline characteristics and surrounding environmental factors. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to extract the principal components affecting gas pipeline risks, and then the System Dynamics Model (SD model) is applied to build causal feedback loops to predict the temporal evolution of pipeline failure probabilities. This evolutionary sequence-based assessment of PE gas pipeline system risks and failure conditions can effectively guide the optimization of gas pipeline operation and maintenance, thereby enhancing pipeline safety.